The impact of the Ukraine crisis on climate change

War in Ukraine will impact the battle against climate change

There are no doubt multiple factors that led to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. One was likely to have been a calculation that European dependence on Russian fossil fuels – particularly gas – would limit the severity of any resulting sanctions on Russia from the West. Such a judgement would have considered low European gas inventories, elevated inflation pressures and the fact that Europe’s Fit for 55 climate action plan envisaged a gradual reduction of gas imports over the coming decade in a bid to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% of 1990 levels by 2030. Such an analysis would have suggested some leverage of Russian gas supply now, but that would be likely to fade over time.

Such a calculation now appears misplaced. The sanctions against Russia have been deeper, more far-reaching, and more unified than many had expected. Moreover, the consequence of the inevitable increase in energy prices – particularly for European natural gas – has been for the European Commission to propose an even quicker shift in gas imports to reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian supply. Europe has already banned Russian coal, but it is now considering sanctions on Russian imports of oil and even gas.

In this paper, we look at Europe’s plans to reduce its dependency on Russian gas. We calculate the likely impact on the EU’s GHG emissions if Russian gas supplies to Europe were halted – requiring substitution, and higher-emitting fuels, to be used for generation capacity to temporarily fill the breach. However, in the medium term the swifter shift to non-fossil fuel generation would likely see emissions fall faster. We then critically assess the plausibility of these assumptions. Exhibit 1 illustrates our estimates of the impact on GHG emissions of the EU’s new plans, and an estimated range of a likely path of emissions.