January Global Macro Monthly - Omicron to a Russian Rubicon
- 26 January 2022 (10 min read)
Key points
- Omicron cases appear to be peaking in countries exposed early, but it is spreading more broadly. Hospitalisations have been relatively light, but disruption is still likely.
- Russia-Ukraine border tensions are rising and having a spillover effect in energy and risk asset markets.
- Inflation rose in several developed jurisdictions in December but should be near peak. Omicron and geopolitics to keep rates elevated over the coming months. Visible disinflation expected after the Spring.
- Elevated inflation and tight labour markets are resulting in developed market central banks tightening policy sooner than previously expected. We expect the Federal Reserve to tighten policy in March, but the European Central Bank to hold off into 2023.
- The growth outlook is softer in the short-term reflecting Omicron disruption and an income squeeze. We also lower our US growth outlook on faster policy tightening.
Disclaimer
The information on this website is intended for investors domiciled in Switzerland.
AXA Investment Managers Switzerland Ltd (AXA IM) is not liable for unauthorised use of the website.
This website is for advertising and informational purpose only. The published information and expression of opinions are provided for personal use only. The information, data, figures, opinions, statements, analyses, forecasts, simulations, concepts and other data provided by AXA IM in this document are based on our knowledge and experience at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice.
AXA IM excludes any warranty (explicit or implicit) for the accuracy, completeness and up-to-dateness of the published information and expressions of opinion. In particular, AXA IM is not obliged to remove information that is no longer up to date or to expressly mark it a such. To the extent that the data contained in this document originates from third parties, AXA IM is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, up-to-dateness and appropriateness of such data, even if only such data is used that is deemed to be reliable.
The information on the website of AXA IM does not constitute a decision aid for economic, legal, tax or other advisory questions, nor may investment or other decisions be made solely on the basis of this information. Before any investment decision is made, detailed advice should be obtained that is geared to the client's situation.
Past performance or returns are neither a guarantee nor an indicator of the future performance or investment returns. The value and return on an investment is not guaranteed. It can rise and fall and investors may even incur a total loss.
AXA Investment Managers Switzerland Ltd.