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Macroeconomics

March Global Macro Monthly - Inflation divergence to drive monetary tensions

KEY POINTS
Markets continued to pare back expectations for rate cuts, until central banks gave clearer guidance.
Disinflation momentum appears to have slowed in key economies, but has not gone into reverse, subject to risks associated with Middle East conflicts.
Growth in different economies has been subject to very different dynamics. Until now inflation has appeared highly synchronised in most regions. Looking ahead, inflation drivers could diverge in key regions.
In most cases, monetary policy will have to adapt to accommodate emerging differences – indeed this process is underway in several important economies.
Elections continue to be a feature for local developments, with the exception of the US election which weighs on many aspects of the global economy.

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