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April Monthly Investment Strategy - US shifts outlook, who shall follow?

KEY POINTS
Successive US reports, payrolls, inflation and retail sales led Fed Chair Powell to suggest that restrictive policy would likely be required for longer. We shifted our view to the Fed cutting twice this year, now from September.
Despite stickier inflation, real rates have risen as the scale of policy required to return inflation to target is reassessed. This is having global implications.
The ECB appears on track for a June cut, but markets question the BoE. Weaker domestic currencies may influence policy in Canada and Japan, and Emerging Markets. Rising rates also threaten local fiscal positions.
Beyond US dynamics, we focus on China, where recent data suggest that last year’s stimulus is finding more traction. We discuss the housing market, which we see acting as a drag, but avoiding crisis.
Geopolitical tensions have also built, both between Israel-Iran and with a continuing war in Ukraine.

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