June Global Macro Monthly - A summer of discontent
- 29 June 2022 (10 min read)
Key points
- Our global outlook was more pessimistic than consensus at the start of this year but weakened materially after the Ukraine invasion. Consensus has converged towards our view in recent months
- We lower our forecasts modestly for the US, more for China and rebalance them in the Eurozone for a weaker 2023. We do not see recession as an inevitable outcome, but it is a risk in the US and even closer across Europe
- Inflation continues to rise as the war impacts food and energy prices, which risks spilling further into the summer
- But domestic developments dominate our long-term inflation outlook. Wages are rising in tight labour markets. Industrial action in several economies will exacerbate this trend. While highly visible price increases also risk dislodging longer-term inflation expectations
- Fears around expectations have spurred central banks to more forceful rate increase – a shift that has tightened financial conditions materially. The avoidance of recession will in part hinge on the scale of tightening from here
Related Documents
Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions
Visit the investment instituteDisclaimer
The information on this website is intended for investors domiciled in Switzerland.
AXA Investment Managers Switzerland Ltd (AXA IM) is not liable for unauthorised use of the website.
This website is for advertising and informational purpose only. The published information and expression of opinions are provided for personal use only. The information, data, figures, opinions, statements, analyses, forecasts, simulations, concepts and other data provided by AXA IM in this document are based on our knowledge and experience at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice.
AXA IM excludes any warranty (explicit or implicit) for the accuracy, completeness and up-to-dateness of the published information and expressions of opinion. In particular, AXA IM is not obliged to remove information that is no longer up to date or to expressly mark it a such. To the extent that the data contained in this document originates from third parties, AXA IM is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, up-to-dateness and appropriateness of such data, even if only such data is used that is deemed to be reliable.
The information on the website of AXA IM does not constitute a decision aid for economic, legal, tax or other advisory questions, nor may investment or other decisions be made solely on the basis of this information. Before any investment decision is made, detailed advice should be obtained that is geared to the client's situation.
Past performance or returns are neither a guarantee nor an indicator of the future performance or investment returns. The value and return on an investment is not guaranteed. It can rise and fall and investors may even incur a total loss.
AXA Investment Managers Switzerland Ltd.