UK General Election: Ushering in a new era
- 05 July 2024 (10 min read)
The polls were right; Keir Starmer will step into 10 Downing Street later today as the UK’s new Prime Minister (PM) after 14 years of Conservative (Tory) government. The exit poll predicted Labour would win 410 seats – slightly less than former PM Tony Blair’s 419 in 1997 – and at the time of writing, Labour looks set to win 413 (with seven seats still to go). If that bears out, Labour will lead with a majority of around 170, far larger than the Tories’ 80 in 2019. A prominent boon to the Labour Party was the revival of support in Scotland; the party picked up 36 seats, following the collapse of the Scottish National Party (SNP), which won just nine, down 38, but more importantly the split of the right vote.
The Conservatives, by contrast, faced a washout with a staggering 19% drop in vote share from the last election. At the time of writing this looks to translate to a win of just 122 seats, 243 less than in 2019, which would result in a larger swing than in 1906 when Arthur Balfour’s government lost 211. Key Tory losses included a favourite for future party leader Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, former PM Liz Truss, Liam Fox, and Grant Shapps. The party’s performance was not quite as poor as some had expected – The Economist, for instance, had predicted that the party would win just 76 seats and the lowest MRP opinion poll 56. But there are no two ways about it, this was a bad day for the Tories and means Rishi Sunak will most likely step down as the leader of the Conservative Party, sparking another Tory leadership race – Kemi Badenoch and James Cleverly are among the current favourites to succeed him.
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