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Investment Institute
Macroeconomics

May Monthly Investment Strategy - Governments extend influence over outlooks

KEY POINTS
A firmer pace of Q1 GDP growth, stickier services inflation and a more cautious easing from central banks are common themes across international economies.
The ECB remains on track to cut rates in June. Elsewhere we expect more caution, with the BoC in July, BoE in August and Fed in September. Latin American central banks have slowed the pace of easing. EM Asian central banks look set to delay starts to H2.
GDP growth is likely to soften to a more sustainable pace in several economies in Q2, reflecting tighter policy, but recovering consumer spending.
Disinflation remains on track in most economies, but services inflation taking more time to soften.
Key election developments include an early election in the UK (4 July). India, South Africa and Mexico will all see results of polls in coming weeks.

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