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Investment Institute
Macroeconomics

September Monthly Investment Strategy - The sum of all fears

KEY POINTS
Developments in the US economy continue to drive markets. The Fed started its easing cycle with an aggressive 50bp cut. US market volatility could persist into Novembers elections. Yet external factors are necessary to reconcile market pricing and US outlook.
China continues to concern. Domestic demand weakens further as house prices fall and the labour market softens. The authorities’ stimulus through industrial investment appears to be fading. We expect more stimulus, but the risks of a more severe slowdown in China are growing.
Adjustments to Japanese policy and impacts on repatriation flows have also impacted markets.
Eurozone activity is mixed but still subdued overall with pressing longer-term concerns, including the industrial complex, politics and fiscal stability.
These broader assessments are likely weighing on risk sentiment at the margins.
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