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July Monthly Investment Strategy - One crazy summer

KEY POINTS
French elections avoided the most extreme political and economic outcomes, but threaten paralysis as the country manages its excess deficit issue.
US developments appear to overturn the political outlook. A Trump win is now our baseline. But Trump’s economic agenda could curtail Fed rate cuts next year.
China’s Third Plenum again promised active domestic demand support, but little sense of anything new.
Emerging market economies will be affected by these broader developments as much as developed.
While EM gross exports are driven by the larger economies, underlying growth is increasingly a function of South-South trade. EM could be well positioned to outperform, but will be vulnerable to Trumponomics.
Meanwhile central bank outlooks are increasingly easing, we expect the BoC (again) and BoE to cut rates over the coming weeks and the ECB (again) and Fed in September.

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