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June Monthly Investment Strategy - The times they are a-changin’

KEY POINTS
We billed 2024 as the great election year and so it is proving. Mexican, Indian and South African elections all delivered widely expected outcomes, but with twists that led to sharp market reactions.
European Parliamentary elections also delivered broadly as anticipated, but also resulted in a shock French election (30 June/7July) which has weighed on European markets. US elections will come into more focus after the 27 June TV debates.
The UK’s election on 4 July looks set to deliver a comfortable-to-large majority for centrism, in a move that asks if the UK is past peak populism.
Public finances are the near-term concern, stretched in most developed economies with risks of further widening in France and the US.
Central banks remain the guardians of the economy. The ECB and BoC have already eased policy; the Fed and BoE look soon to follow.

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